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  HOW TO HANDLE FREE THROW STATS IN HOOPS HANDICAPPING — 3/23/2006
By Kevin O’Neill
IHow do you use free throws in your handicapping? West Virginia shoots better than 74% from the free throw line. But that is less of a factor in your handicapping of them than it would be for many other teams. WVU is not a “take it to the rim” team that gets to the line a lot. In fact, in a loss at Syracuse a few weeks ago the Mountaineers didn’t attempt a single free throw. On the season they average shooting fewer than 13 free throws per game. In contrast, Connecticut earns over 25 free throws per game. If free throws were a particular strength or weakness of the Huskies (they’re not, they average a big under 70% and are a middle of the road free throw team) it would be a much more important handicapping factor than the free throw percentage of West Virginia.

The uncertain nature of free throws makes it a difficult factor to handicap. In researching Friday’s Villanova’s Sweet 16 matchup against Boston College, we looked into the games these teams split as Big East rivals last season before BC did the big money grab to go to the ACC. Boston College won a tight one at home thanks in large part to Villanova going only 4-7 from the free throw line. In ‘Nova’s win over the then 3rd-ranked Eagles the Wildcats won in large part due to a 36-41 effort from the charity stripe. 7 attempts in one game, 41 in the rematch. Clearly free throws are a very tough thing to handicap.

Plenty of free basketball information is available on our free hotline at 770-618-8700 and there is often no advertising on that line, just analysis. Make that call part of your daily handicapping routine.

Nuggets head coach George Karl’s son Coby was the leading scorer for Boise State last season. This week the younger Karl had a cancerous lump removed from his thyroid. It is a treatable form of cancer and he is expected to make a full recovery. Let’s hope the expectations are met here. Karl missed a couple of days of practice but returned to coach the Nuggets in their win over the Spurs on Wednesday night. Speaking of sons and athletes, Al Toon’s son will be following in his father’s footsteps in the fall of 1997, having verbally committed to play wide receiver at Wisconsin, his father’s alma mater. The fact that Al Toon’s son will be playing major college football in 16 months makes me feel old.

The Kentucky Derby is only 44 days away and Californian Brother Derek has inherited the favorite’s role from Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion StevieWonderBoy, who suffered a broken bone in his leg because, well, he is the BC Juvenile champ and they always suffer injuries. SWB is supposed to race again after recovering.

Let’s look at a basketball game for this weekend. Tough to see how the Mavericks, with much bigger fish to fry (at Detroit is next) are focused for this out of conference affair against a bad team. On Saturday they play in a dull environment here vs. an Atlanta club that enjoys little crowd support. This is one of those nights that a simple win, and not winning by a margin, will be all they are after. Meanwhile the Hawks continue to put in some decent efforts. See them being enthusiastic about the chance to take on a top team here. Take the points with Atlanta.

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