In a game with the teams combining for 16 first downs, Florida State beat NC State 17-10 on Thursday night. The Wolfpack outgained the Seminoles 123 yards to 121 after the ‘noles took a knee and lost yardage on the last couple of plays. NC State has actually outgained every single opponent they’ve played, yet are now sitting 4-6 straight up and have covered only twice all season. Last year the only team in college football to outgain their opponent in every single game was…(are you ready for this?) the Memphis Tigers. The Tigers Memphis finished the year 9-4 after their New Orleans Bowl win over North Texas (which Tommy West’s team celebrated as though Memphis had knocked off Southern Cal). The bowl win brought Memphis to 6-6 against the number. So knowing in advance a team that was going to outgain their opponents all year long and not really be overpriced would have led you to be a substantial pointspread loser. Go figure.

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We had the under in the aforementioned NC State/Florida State game on our free hotline. Call this number at 1-770-618-8700 for free gameday analysis. Expect South Carolina to be a serious player in the Steve Spurrier sweepstakes. There is substantial money in the South Carolina program and Spurrier could keep a home on the Palmetto State coast, with the oceanfront golf he so covets. We hated to see Ricky Williams leave the Dolphins, as we thought Miami was going to be an overrated 11 this fall and we always enjoyed betting against Dave Wannstedt-coached teams. Can’t help but feel sorry for that Wannstedt was dealt this fall, however. He deserved a chance to prove us wrong. The offseason the Dolphins had provided him with no chance at all. How relieved is Dan Marino for having backed out of that nightmare?

When those inaccurate and phony exit polls came out on the internet during the election, speculators on exchanges started supporting Kerry as though they were the final results. The result was that some very smart people I know made a fortune on the election, with Kerry at +200 or more during the campaign and Bush at +200 or more on Election Day. With bettors reacting so quickly to news, the election was paradise for middlers and scalpers all summer and fall, with the only problem being one of liquidity. Every bet you made was tied up until November 2. Some of these smart people think there was serious manipulation of the trading by Kerry people, but gamblers tend to be pretty “grassy knolly”. One thing about that exit polling, if it was so bogus doesn’t that discount the (endless) analysis based on the same exit polls? Journalists don’t seem to think so. But so often journalists don’t seem to think. The Vegas 5 gang was 5-0 in the NFL last week and has some big things planned in the pros this weekend. Make sure you check things out as five solid, hardworking handicappers pool their resources and opinions at www.vegas5.com.

The bookmakers of the world had a banner early NFL session last week, as underdogs not only went 7-0 in the 1PM Eastern games, but each dog won straight up (the Bengals, who crushed the Cowboys, hovered between pick and +1, so we’re calling them a dog). The 7-team early session money line parlay paid better than 450-1 at the few places that would actually let you win a money line parlay that pays 450-1.

Georgia QB David Greene and Auburn signalcaller Jason Campbell could easily have had their roles reversed in this Saturday’s matchup. Greene grew up as an Auburn fan, the son of AU alums. Campbell and Greene were both recruited in the fall of ’99 by both Georgia and Auburn. Greene chose Georgia with Auburn as his second choice. Campbell chose Auburn with Georgia as his second choice. Greene made the better choice, as he has prospered under Marc Richt. Campbell has suffered through four different offensive coordinators and the senior is finally blossoming under Al Borges.

With every team in the BCS mix other than Southern Cal feeling pressure to stretch out scoring margins we wouldn’t want to be on Nebraska Saturday. This is not your father’s Oklahoma/Nebraska game, and unfortunately this is not much of a rivalry any longer. Formerly a grudge match played every Thanksgiving weekend, the two teams are now in different divisions of the Big 12 and no longer meet annually.

With a change in offense to one that doesn’t fit their personnel, Nebraska doesn’t bring much to the table here. Don’t be fooled by the decent offensive numbers that the Huskers logged in their loss at Iowa State Saturday. They trailed 27-7 late in the 3rd before a drop in intensity by an ISU club inexperienced in dealing with prosperity allowed Nebraska to fight back to a more respectable 34-27 loss. And let’s remember, this is a loss to Iowa State we’re talking about. Their home win the previous week over Missouri was similarly misleading. Not only was Mizzou racked by internal problems and dissention during the week, but their plane slid off a wet runway while trying to leave Columbia, shaking up everyone involved. Despite these advantages Nebraska earned only 8 first downs on the day, they gained only 235 yards of total offense, and QB Joe Dailey was a horrendous 4-18 for 26 yards. But turnovers and their strong home field advantage helped Nebraska to their win, as unimpressive as it was. One of their TD’s was a punt return, the other was a 15-yard drive after a turnover. They popped an 86-yard TD run with less than 3 minutes left. The Huskers just didn’t do much at all, but seeing the 24-3 final most people won’t realize how lucky they were. It has been a similar story all year long, with the “internals” of box scores very unimpressive.

Oklahoma is fully capable of exploiting the Huskers flaws, and the Sooners are doubly motivated to hang a big number here. BCS numbers nerds report that if Auburn wins out against Georgia, Alabama, and likely SEC title game opponent Tennessee the Tigers may pass the Sooners in the convoluted rankings based on strength of schedule. Believe it or not, OU may be saddled with Iowa State as an opponent in the Big 12 Championship game, and no matter the foe they won’t improve on their strength of schedule. The Sooners are motivated to win big and have the tools to do so. Oklahoma co-defensive coordinator Bo Pelini headed up Nebraska’s defense last year and was disappointed that he didn’t get the head job in Lincoln. He knows the Husker personnel well, and his insight on how to attack it will have great value. This one could get ugly early and the Sooners have every reason to hang as big a number as they can.

The Vikings put up their three lowest offensive outputs (by far) of the season in the three games they’ve played essentially without Randy Moss. Monday night they gained only 292 yards in their misleading 28-point outburst against the Colts. Much offseason focus was placed on slowing down Green Bay’s offense, and the Vikes’ run defense is improved. Though the forecast is sunny and 40’s for Green Bay on Sunday, we still don’t see a shootout in the making. With a total of 50 as I write this, we’ll look under that high number.

Thanks for reading us this week. Good luck and be careful. If you’d like to get this newsletter directly via email you can do so by signing up at http://www.consumerbet.com/email.html. Remember to call our free hotline at 770-618-8700, a free 24-hour service with analysis and selections every game day.