IMAGINE LISA G WITH NO NOTES….FAKE, FAKER, FAKEST: PHONY UPSETS, MISLEADING STATS, CONTRIVED TV GAMES

On Tuesday night, Miami of Ohio notched a big 33-10 win over 15th ranked (20th in the other poll) Bowling Green. This win was dubbed an “upset” by the national media despite the fact that Miami was a 7½-point favorite. There is no poll in the nation that is more accurate in predicting the winner of a football game than the pointspread is. The only time that a football game where the betting favorite wins can arguably be called an “upset” is when the winner is a home favorite of less than three, which indicates that the road team is seen by the betting public as superior on a neutral field.

Warning to statistical handicappers. Arkansas’ 71-63 win in 7 OT’s at Kentucky was only 24-24 at the end of regulation. In the overtimes Arkansas outscored the Wildcats 47-39. This blows up the scoring per game averages of both clubs. Arkansas is now appearing to score 6 points per game more than they actually get in regulation. Defensively they allow 4.87 points per game more than they should. Their yardage averages are similarly skewed as a result of the overtime.

While we rarely are of the opinion that is there any such thing as too much football this week’s schedule seems a bit much. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday football. By the time Monday night rolls around there will have been twelve consecutive days of football. That’s a tradition during bowl season, but too much now. Is the long awaited gaming industry move offshore beginning? Harrah’s appears to be the first American casino corporation dipping a toe in the waters of web wagering. The State of Mississippi has assured Harrah’s that their gaming licenses would not be at risk in the state if they make such a move, so Harrah’s has obtained a license in the Channel Islands.

Although Lisa Guerrero needed to refer to her notes to remember his name, Bill Belichick is a guy who not only knows how to scheme, but he knows clock management and game situations. Down a point, the field position move of taking a purposeful safety from his own one-yard line worked out beautifully, as Deltha O’Neal (no relation to author) misplayed the free kick and the Broncos ended up playing from their own 12 rather than the Pats 40 or so. Interestingly, the play for the Pats could have been forced to make had things worked out a little differently would have been even more dramatic. When down a point and the opponent has a chance to run the clock out, the play is to let them score a TD. You’d go down 8 but at least have a chance to score a TD and convert a two-pointer to force OT. Better than watching the opponent run out the clock and never have a chance. Such a move would not have been something we would have liked to see, as we had the underdog. But we couldn’t argue with the strategy. Incidentally, we were on the other side of a huge service consensus Monday night. We felt that the Pats matched up well with the Broncos. How we projected the game to play out on the field was more important to us than historical situations and Bronco home trends largely earned when John Elway was QBing Denver.

Let’s talk about a team that didn’t strategize quite as well last weekend. In our weekly newsletter The Max (short for The Maximium Profit Football Weekly) we often harp on the need for a strategy and clock management coach. Often coaches are too wrapped up in a play as it happens to have properly thought out what to do next. A strategy coach would handle when to use time outs, assist in down & distance and special teams decisions, encourage the offensive coordinator to run late in games with a lead instead of passing (this alone cost the Dolphins their season ender last year and season opener this year) etc. If the Jets had a strategy coach he could have immediately made the options clear to Herm Edwards following their failed 3rd down play late in overtime when they were on the Giants 35. Instead, Edwards was indecisive, and with the play clock running down the ball was snapped without the kicker being ready. The block set the Giants up with great field position to kick the game winner with five seconds left in OT.

Speaking of The Max, NFL picks there are now 48-25-4 (65.7%) since the issue sent out on October 28th last year. You’ll also love our handicapping research, our stats page, and our system page, which includes three or four systems to use for as long as you wish. If you would like the Max faxed or emailed to you each week through the Super Bowl for $109 you can call 1-770-649-1078 and we’ll this week’s right out to you.

Could you ever imagine when BYU coach Gary Crowton won his first 12 games in his first year as head coach of the Cougars back in 2001 that he could possibly be in danger of losing his job less than two years later? That’s how quickly fortunes can change in the coaching world. The Mormons across the country who gather at their places of worship to watch BYU games are not pleased with winning only 9 of 25 games since then. Particularly galling are the four straight home losses with the last two being by a combined 108-25 to Colorado State and Boise State, both on national television. When BYU scored to cut the lead to 28-10 in the third quarter and the obvious play was to go for the two-point conversion to cut it to 16. The coaches realized the need for two entirely too late and they had to call time out to pull the kicking team off the field. On the BYU sideline, Crowton was the pinnacle of frenzied confusion as he tried to get the timeout. It was reminiscent of the Georgia sideline under Ray Goff. The preceding sentence is not a compliment.

When it comes to the rapid change in public perception of the relative merits of a coach like Crowton, things aren’t much different in the NFL. Before the season Atlanta Falcon defensive coordinator Wade Phillips seemed poised to once again be named a head coach in the NFL based on the progress had made during his tenure in Atlanta. To say things have changed in Atlanta is a gross understatement. Despite the perception that the problems in Atlanta are due to the absence of Mike Vick, the Falcon defense has been dreadful. This sorry bunch is threatening numerous records for defensive ineptitude. They are ranked last in total defense, allowing 49 yards per game more than any other team. They are last in points allowed. Atlanta allows a shocking 8.9 yards per pass attempt and 271 passing yards per game, obviously last in both categories. Opposing quarterbacks have a higher rating against the Falcons than they do against any other opponent. The defense has given up more TD’s than anyone else in football. Another category where they bring up the rear is allowing opponents to gain 6.6 yards per play. They aren’t worst in the league in every category however. They are 31st in first downs allowed, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed. In relation to their other stats they virtually excel in defensive yards per rush attempt, as they are 25th in the league in that category. The Falcons defense is so bad; they allowed the 31st ranked offense in the NFL to gain 430 yards in their loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. We can say with reasonable certainty that Wade Phillips’ agent is not getting the feelers that he expected from owners around the league by this point of the season.

Marshall has gotten officials calls at home that BYU used to get in the old WAC. But do you think MAC refs will be quite as favorably inclined towards the Thundering Herd now that they are going to Conference USA? How about Big East referees and the way they treat Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College down the stretch. It’ll be interesting to see the kind of calls that Conference USA refs give South Florida, TCU, Louisville, Cincinnati, etc. Obviously no referee will be out to “get” any team, but some subtle bias won’t surprise us at all. The referees are employed by the conferences, and the conferences now have a stake in who wins games. It helps the conference financially if those who are staying prevail over those who are on their way out.

The Bears 24-16 home win two weeks ago over the Lions saw very little offense, with the Lions outgaining the Bears 261-260. The points were created by kickoff returns for a TD by each team and a Lions TD in the last minute to make the score more respectable than it actually was. To be kind, both of these teams lack playmaking ability of the sort that leads to “instant offense” to put games over the total. Chris Chandler is far less likely to make the kind of killer mistakes that Kordell Stewart made with regularity, the kind that left opponents in easy scoring position. With these teams familiar with each other offensively having just played two weeks ago, we’ll look for a low scoring contest and for the under to be a favorable proposition.

On our Sports & Gaming telephone hotline (no charge for the call) has information for you every game day at 1-770-618-8700 (a local Atlanta number). Be sure to give 1-770-618-8700 a call any time you’re looking for info on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Mondays, as well as all the days in between this week where they really shouldn’t have football but ESPN2 needed some programming.

Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe is someone whose coaching we admire greatly, and he has been a positive pointspread proposition since coming to Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons are 19-12 vs. the spread since Grobe took over at for the 2001 season, but the entirety of their profits have been sneaking up on people. Wake Forest is 15-4 as an underdog during that time frame and are only 4-8 as a favorite or “pick”. Wake makes the short trip to Chapel Hill today to take on a North Carolina team that is no great shakes, but has been generating some offense as of late. They have scored 27 points or more in six of their past eight games against a pretty tough schedule of teams and have covered three of their past four. Despite the coaching edge that Wake Forest enjoys, we’ll look for UNC to show some continued spark and fade Wake Forest in a role that is not their best. North Carolina +8½ is the value play here.

We didn’t forget about the pioneering “jackathelete” that we talked about last week. We just ran out of space here. We’ll get to it next week.

Thanks for taking the time to read us. Good luck and be careful.

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Kevin O’Neill is the director of content for www.consumerbet.com. His 24-hour free telephone selection hotline can be accessed by calling 1-770-618-8700.

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