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  Sports & Gaming News: A Football Warning, Horses, and Free Picks— 10/29/2004
By Kevin O’Neill

Garbage in, garbage out: ESPN’s web site makes fairly frequent errors in their boxscores. Southern Miss led East Carolina 35-0 at the half, not 49-3 as ESPN’s box claimed. This is an issue for those who focus on first half and halftime betting, as well as for the computer guys who strip web sites automatically for box score data. It probably isn’t a bad idea to get independent confirmation of all your final scores, as mistakes are made fairly frequently. Again, first half and halftime bettors should be the ones heeding this warning most seriously.

The Breeder’s Cup is Saturday at Lone Star Park. Many sports books that aren’t primarily horse books will take action on the eight races. If you are betting offshore be aware that most books won't pay anything more than 20-1 on a win bet or 100-1 on an exacta or daily double. Know the rules of play. On combinations that would pay more than that you should find a way to bet into the pool. If your book allows 100-1 payoffs on quinellas you should look to play a quinella instead of an exacta box on anything paying over $202. You should ask your book if they increase their payoff limits for the Breeders' Cup races (some do just for the Classic). You’ll likely be best served betting your longshots at the track or via some other vehicle that allows it to be placed right into the pari-mutuel pool. Nothing worse that hitting a $420 exacta and your book limiting you to a $202 payout.

Speaking of horse racing, former journeyman NFL linebacker Bryan Cox is an analyst on TVG. He’s a pretty sharp handicapper, too. Cox has yet to say that a horse is overrated because of his color, but give him time. Did you see Byron Leftwich after throwing the game winning TD pass against the Colts? He didn’t celebrate, instead he immediately held up two fingers to indicate it was time for a two-point conversion, which the situation dictated. Sharp kid. Sharper than some coaches, in fact.

This is a little embarrassing but if you want to see video of me preparing for a radio appearance go here: http://slate.msn.com/id/2108216/slideshow/2108085/entry/2108087/speed/100

ABC’s “Sacked” featurette was pretty funny the first time, when they used a phony magazine photo shoot to get Torry Holt of the Rams to dress up like David Kopay’s favorite teammate, but the ones I’ve seen since then have been dreadful. Miami’s Morlon Greenwood is a reggae artist, and a “British music journalist” was interviewing him about his music. The writer said that Junior Seau had said that his focus on music was keeping Greenwood from the Pro Bowl and hurting the team. Even though Greenwood clearly doesn’t believe the guy Seau emerges in gales of laughter, saying “you’ve been sacked on Monday Night Football!!” The “practical joke” didn’t work at all, so why show it?

With “19 games in 19 days” (alternate title: “non-BCS teams sacrifice their fans’ experience for our TV money”) coming up it probably makes sense for you to be calling our free hotline at 770-618-8700 for free game day previews. On Saturday morning we’ll have a game there that we like quite a bit. Here’s a free pick for you:

Fueled by their pregame fun at The Grove and still harboring a grudge against Tommy Tuberville for leaving Ole’ Miss several years ago for a job within their same division at Auburn, Rebel fans will create an unwelcoming environment for this Saturday night affair. The Rebels are considerably healthier than they were heading into their bye week and enjoyed a considerable return to health during the off week. The undefeated Tigers haven’t had an opponent within 24 points of them since their 10-9 win over LSU on September 18th, and are playing absolutely terrific football. Any form of statistical analysis based on the full season legitimizes this spread. But Mississippi’s upset win at South Carolina and close loss to Tennessee is more indicative of their play right now than season-long statistics would indicate. Coach Cutcliffe is getting better play all over the field and will have his charges primed for this one. Cutcliffe is also being tricky in not announcing which of his three quarterbacks will play in this game, giving Auburn a lot to play for. Others will speak of Auburn’s revenge motive in this game after their dramatic loss last year, but Eli Manning beat them and he’s not around to motivate them. Auburn’s only two remaining games are Georgia and Alabama. Clearly, this is third in importance on their list. An outright win would be a huge surprise, but believe the big points are worth taking with Mississippi on their strong home field.

Now onto the NFL, sometimes the side and total in a game are directly correlated to one another, giving you the potential of a parlay with them, even if you don’t have a real strong opinion on the game. In the NFL we’re going to suggest a parlay of Baltimore to the under in their game against Philadelphia. We don’t particularly like either one individually, but if the Ravens are successful with their sure-to-be conservative game plan, it will influence both the side and the total. Slowing down the Eagle offense will keep the game close and low scoring. It isn’t really a handicap of the game for the purposes of laying -110, but more a suggestion at a correlation that pays +260 or more.

Thanks for reading us this week. Good luck and be careful. If you’d like to get this newsletter directly via email you can do so by signing up at http://www.consumerbet.com/email.html. Remember to call our free hotline at 770-618-8700, a free 24-hour service with analysis and selections every game day.

Previous Issues of Sports and Gaming News
2004
10/15/04 10/07/2004
09/30/04 09/18/04
09/10/04 04/26/04
02/13/04 02/05/04
1/30/04 1/19/04
2003
12/22/03 12/19/03
12/12/03 12/04/03
11/26/03 11/21/03
11/13/03 11/06/03
10/30/03 10/23/03
10/17/03 10/10/03
10/01/03 09/19/03
09/11/03 09/04/03
08/30/03 08/03/03
2/09/03 1/24/03
1/17/03 1/10/03
2002
12/6/02 11/21/02
11/15/02 11/08/02
10/31/02 10/24/02
10/18/02 10/10/02
10/03/02 9/26/02
9/19/02 9/12/02

 
     
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