By Kevin O’Neill
Garbage in, garbage out: ESPN’s web site
makes fairly frequent errors in their boxscores. Southern
Miss led East Carolina 35-0 at the half, not 49-3 as ESPN’s
box claimed. This is an issue for those who focus on first
half and halftime betting, as well as for the computer guys
who strip web sites automatically for box score data. It probably
isn’t a bad idea to get independent confirmation of
all your final scores, as mistakes are made fairly frequently.
Again, first half and halftime bettors should be the ones
heeding this warning most seriously.
The Breeder’s Cup is Saturday at Lone Star Park. Many
sports books that aren’t primarily horse books will
take action on the eight races. If you are betting offshore
be aware that most books won't pay anything more than 20-1
on a win bet or 100-1 on an exacta or daily double. Know the
rules of play. On combinations that would pay more than that
you should find a way to bet into the pool. If your book allows
100-1 payoffs on quinellas you should look to play a quinella
instead of an exacta box on anything paying over $202. You
should ask your book if they increase their payoff limits
for the Breeders' Cup races (some do just for the Classic).
You’ll likely be best served betting your longshots
at the track or via some other vehicle that allows it to be
placed right into the pari-mutuel pool. Nothing worse that
hitting a $420 exacta and your book limiting you to a $202
payout.
Speaking of horse racing, former journeyman NFL linebacker
Bryan Cox is an analyst on TVG. He’s a pretty sharp
handicapper, too. Cox has yet to say that a horse is overrated
because of his color, but give him time. Did you see Byron
Leftwich after throwing the game winning TD pass against the
Colts? He didn’t celebrate, instead he immediately held
up two fingers to indicate it was time for a two-point conversion,
which the situation dictated. Sharp kid. Sharper than some
coaches, in fact.
This is a little embarrassing but if you want to see video
of me preparing for a radio appearance go here: http://slate.msn.com/id/2108216/slideshow/2108085/entry/2108087/speed/100
ABC’s “Sacked” featurette was pretty funny
the first time, when they used a phony magazine photo shoot
to get Torry Holt of the Rams to dress up like David Kopay’s
favorite teammate, but the ones I’ve seen since then
have been dreadful. Miami’s Morlon Greenwood is a reggae
artist, and a “British music journalist” was interviewing
him about his music. The writer said that Junior Seau had
said that his focus on music was keeping Greenwood from the
Pro Bowl and hurting the team. Even though Greenwood clearly
doesn’t believe the guy Seau emerges in gales of laughter,
saying “you’ve been sacked on Monday Night Football!!”
The “practical joke” didn’t work at all,
so why show it?
With “19 games in 19 days” (alternate title:
“non-BCS teams sacrifice their fans’ experience
for our TV money”) coming up it probably makes sense
for you to be calling our free hotline at 770-618-8700 for
free game day previews. On Saturday morning we’ll have
a game there that we like quite a bit. Here’s a free
pick for you:
Fueled by their pregame fun at The Grove and still harboring
a grudge against Tommy Tuberville for leaving Ole’ Miss
several years ago for a job within their same division at
Auburn, Rebel fans will create an unwelcoming environment
for this Saturday night affair. The Rebels are considerably
healthier than they were heading into their bye week and enjoyed
a considerable return to health during the off week. The undefeated
Tigers haven’t had an opponent within 24 points of them
since their 10-9 win over LSU on September 18th, and are playing
absolutely terrific football. Any form of statistical analysis
based on the full season legitimizes this spread. But Mississippi’s
upset win at South Carolina and close loss to Tennessee is
more indicative of their play right now than season-long statistics
would indicate. Coach Cutcliffe is getting better play all
over the field and will have his charges primed for this one.
Cutcliffe is also being tricky in not announcing which of
his three quarterbacks will play in this game, giving Auburn
a lot to play for. Others will speak of Auburn’s revenge
motive in this game after their dramatic loss last year, but
Eli Manning beat them and he’s not around to motivate
them. Auburn’s only two remaining games are Georgia
and Alabama. Clearly, this is third in importance on their
list. An outright win would be a huge surprise, but believe
the big points are worth taking with Mississippi on their
strong home field.
Now onto the NFL, sometimes the side and total in a game
are directly correlated to one another, giving you the potential
of a parlay with them, even if you don’t have a real
strong opinion on the game. In the NFL we’re going to
suggest a parlay of Baltimore to the under in their game against
Philadelphia. We don’t particularly like either one
individually, but if the Ravens are successful with their
sure-to-be conservative game plan, it will influence both
the side and the total. Slowing down the Eagle offense will
keep the game close and low scoring. It isn’t really
a handicap of the game for the purposes of laying -110, but
more a suggestion at a correlation that pays +260 or more.
Thanks for reading us this week. Good luck and be careful.
If you’d like to get this newsletter directly via email
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Remember to call our free hotline at 770-618-8700, a free
24-hour service with analysis and selections every game day.
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