By Kevin O’Neill
Before unleashing a barrage of football info,
let’s take a look at a baseball, and see if we can extract
a lesson on isolating teams that are likely to go on a roll.
Traveling in New England this summer, it was stunning to
hear a radio ad featuring Kevin Millar of the Red Sox pushing
a “Reverse the Curse” flavor of ice cream for
a local creamery. Despite a disdain held here for those who
earn a living as Red Sox fatalists, it was surprising to hear
an athlete blatantly using the so-called Curse of the Bambino
for commercial gain. It wasn’t until this week that
I realized what a positive it actually was.
There have been dozens of talented Red Sox teams that have
failed, and most had guys saying some version of the following,
“The Yankees are just another team. They’re professionals
just like we are. We just need to play our game. History doesn’t
matter. We don’t care about what happened in the past,
we weren’t here then, it doesn’t matter.”
You could read between the lines a devastating truth about
those teams. They were terrified by the intensity of the fans
in Boston and the rivalry with the Yankees. The incredible
2004 Red Sox team is different. They embraced the passion
of fans. They openly admitted to the existence of a bitter,
passionate rivalry and mixed it up with the Yankees. And it
was Kevin Millar himself who told all who would listen before
game 4, “The Yankees better beat us today. We’ve
got Pedro tomorrow and then Schilling in game 6. Who knows
what could happen then. They’ll be in trouble if they
don’t win today.”
That’s a paraphrase of his brash statement, and not
his direct quote. But what kind of a crazy man would go out
of his way tell everyone your team still had a live shot in
a series where you were down 0-3 and played some of the worst
baseball imaginable in a 19-8 loss the previous day?
These Red Sox have an attitude, and it is an attitude that
holds a lesson for other teams and players. Embrace the fans
passion and the history of your team, like Schilling and Ortiz
do. Don’t let a slump bother you, just get back out
there the next day, like Johnny Damon did. Say you have a
chance when everyone knows that you really don’t, like
Kevin Millar did. As handicappers and bettors, it behooves
us to find teams in all sports that share some of these qualities.
They’re the ones most likely to continually overcome
public perception and get on a winning roll.
We’ve been in the zone with our college football handicapping
thus far this fall. Our Strategic Sports Publishing late telephone
service is 25-7 (78.1%) on the season in college football,
as documented by The Sports Monitor. Check out our 24-hour
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Talk about being “in the zone”. Michigan State
QB Drew Stanton had it all clicking Saturday as he broke the
MSU record for total offense in a single game. The Spartan
triggerman turned Minnesota’s defense every which way
but loose as he became just the 14th player in NCAA history
to pass for 300 yards and rush for more than 100 in the same
contest. Heck, he even caught a pass for a grand total of
414 yards on the day. A week after their stunning loss in
Ann Arbor, the Gophers were feeling that old Michigan hangover
again. Minny has now lost 12 straight times the week after
losing to the Wolverines.
After getting smoked by Utah in their opener, Texas A&M
has quietly strung together 5 straight wins (covering each
game) following Saturday’s 36-20 whipping of 16th ranked
Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The reasons are simple. QB Reggie
McNeal has been playing top-shelf football and nobody takes
better care of the pig. Amazingly, the Aggies have turned
the ball over only once all season and have a +14 turnover
margin; which is tops in the land. McNeal deserves most of
the credit. He has 0 interceptions in 161 passing attempts
thus far. He’s also the only quarterback in the country
to average 200 yards passing and 70 yards rushing per game.
The “Who’s Your Daddy” award this week goes
to FSU as they continued their decade long dominance over
Virginia. Despite being lower ranked, the Noles showed the
Cavs who’s boss by totally paralyzing UVA’s vaunted
running game to a paltry 20 yards (255 below their avg.).
Over their last 4 meetings, FSU has now outrushed the Wahoos
1,087 to 111. The 36-3 thrashing helped FSU halt a personal
6 game losing skid to Top 10 opponents. Virginia still has
never beaten a Top 10 club on the road.
Speaking of dominance, there may not be a team in the nation
with a bigger roar right now than the Tigers down at Auburn.
Auburn is 7-0 for the first time in a decade after Saturday’s
38-20 dismantling of Arkansas. Although The Cadillac (RB Carnell
Williams) and The Escalade (RB Ronnie Brown) get most of the
pub, it’s the defense that has Auburn already packing
their bags for the SEC title game in December. The Tigers
lead the SEC with 11 interceptions and have yet to allow a
single rushing touchdown. They held Arkansas (top offense
in SEC) 18 points and 125 yards under their season average.
From the “you never know when your number will be called”
file - South Carolina’s late win over Kentucky Saturday
should offer hope to every scout teamer and walk-on from coast
to coast. Trailing 7-6 late with 2 QB’s down and another
ineffective, 4th stringer Michael Rathe stepped in and became
an unlikely hero. The senior led the Gamecocks on an 88-yard
drive capped by a game winning 19 yard TD pass with just under
90 seconds left. Rathe had but a single completion all year
on his resume, but he hit on 5 of 7 for 57 yards on the final
march. SC won in spite of itself (5 turnovers), mostly due
to the ineptness of the Wildcats (4 miscues themselves). Tough
beat if you had the Cats on the ML.
When it comes to ugly numbers, they just don’t get
any more gruesome than those posted by the Maryland offense
the past 2 games. Two weeks ago against Ga. Tech, the Terps
amassed a laughable 81 total yards in a 20-7 loss. They followed
up that “effort” with 91 in a 13-3 home loss to
NC State. The Wolfpack held Maryland to 31 yards after their
opening drive of the day and a single first down over the
final 52 minutes. Terp quarterbacks went a combined 7-18 for
24 yards. Not the type of numbers offensive guru Ralph Friedgen
has come to know over the years. Safe to say that North Carolina
would like to eliminate this past week from their memory.
We told you last week about the suspensions of 3 prominent
Tar Heels for marijuana possession following a big upset of
NC State. This week the Heels were saddled with a 46-16 pummeling
at the hands of 10th ranked Utah – a game that saw the
Utes roll up 669 yards of offense, the most ever allowed by
a UNC team. Utah QB Alex Smith threw for 341 yards and 4 TD’s
and rushed for 2 more. The icing on the cake for UNC was the
loss of 6 players to injury during the game including QB Darian
Durant and leading rusher Jacque Lewis. Oh by the way, Miami
visits Chapel Hill in 2 weeks.
How vital is QB Dustin Almond to the fate of Southern Miss?
With Almond under center the Golden Eagles were unbeaten,
averaging 29 points per game and ranked in the top 25. With
Almond on the sideline due to injury against Alabama, the
Tide rolled to an easy 27-3 win. Southern Miss tried a pair
of back-ups, neither of which were remotely effective. Damion
Carter and Jeremy Young went a combined 6 of 23 for 23 yards
and a pick. Wonder if Coach Jeff Bower is mixing up some magical
bayou brew for Mr. Almond with E. Carolina headed for Hattiesburg
this weekend. The Pirates have been bet down pretty quickly
from the opener of +20. Teams like Boise St. have always longed
for greater national exposure and more respect from the “Big
Boys” of college football. Boise has become quite the
Cinderella story over the past few years (and rightfully so
winning 17 straight and 30 of 31), but with success comes
greater expectations. Forced to lay at least 3 touchdowns
in their past 4 games, the Broncos failed to cover all 4 and
barely squeaked out a pair of SU wins including a last minute
job this week against lowly Tulsa. Boise is only – 11
this week and should be sky high with Fresno St. set to tackle
the famed “Smurf Turf”. Boise has won and covered
the past 3 against the Bulldogs. Win, and Boise may truly
be poised to wreck the BCS if the chips fall the right way.
Week 6 in the NFL saw Philadelphia continue their amazing
run to open the 2004 season. The Eagles are 5-0 (SU and ATS)
with all 5 wins coming by double figures. Only 5 teams in
league history have achieved that feat – the last being
St. Louis in 1999, the first the 34 Bears. Andy Reid also
improved his spotless record after a bye to 6-0. Phily takes
to the highway this week to battle Cleveland as a 7 to 7 ½
point pick. It’s their first non-conference game this
year and a role they have traditionally struggled in.
The only remaining winless team against the number is those
sick kitties in Cincinnati. Carson Palmer and the offense
continued to struggle, gaining just 189 yards and going a
wretched 1 for 13 on 3rd down in a 34-17 loss to Cleveland.
The defense was even worse. Never confused with Air Coryelle
or Marino’s Dolphins, the Brownies O shredded Cincy’s
D for 449 yards, including a record tying 99-yard TD pass
from Jeff Garcia to Andre Davis (just the 10th in NFL history).
ABC must be thrilled as they have the good “fortune”
of Denver at Cincy in the Monday Night affair.
The NFL’s new “Cardiac Kids” and “Captain
Comeback” both reside in the Sunshine State these days.
Thanks to Byron Leftwich, Jacksonville is 4-2 and has found
a way to pull out 3 games where the winning points were scored
with 45 seconds or less remaining. Kansas City was the Jags
latest victim as Leftwich orchestrated the winning drive on
very gimpy leg. The Chiefs now find themselves 1-4 and bucking
the history of just 8 other teams to rebound from that start
and still make the playoffs.
Something has to give this week when 2 of the remaining 3
undefeated teams square off in Foxboro. The Jets are 5-0 for
the first time in franchise history thanks to a defense allowing
just 18 points a game, an AFC best +9 turnover ratio and Curtis
Martin running like his early days in a Pats uni. But we all
know about the sensational run that New England has been on
since last September. The Pats 30-20 win as a 4-point favorite
over Seattle pushed their recent ATS tally to a ridiculous
18-3-2 mark over the past 23 games (17-1-2 ATS in the regular
season). NE has covered 4 of the past 5 against NY, but are
a lousy 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Foxboro.
The weak effort award has to go to the Raiders in last week’s
NFL. The Broncos dominated Sunday in every fashion –
outgaining Oakland 444 to 175 and winning the rushing battle
254 to 31. Although Denver leads the NFL in rushing (152 yds./gm.)
it is their defense that has them atop AFC West. The Orange
Crush allows just 225 yards per game and an AFC best 12.8
points. And they sure know how to close things out, as evidenced
by the measly 3 points allowed all year in the 4th quarter.
Finally, how pathetic the final chapter of Jerry Rice’s
unparalleled career has become. Rice was traded this week
from Oakland to Seattle for a conditional 7th round draft
choice. It would have been more dignified if the Seahawks
offered up a couple of old jocks and a case of ankle tape.
Please Jerry, do us all a favor and hang em up.
Let’s leave you with some college football analysis.
UAB’s Watson Brown is a very underrated coach and has
a talented offense that is gaining 32.7 points per game. Junior
UAB QB Darrell Hackney is a solid NFL prospect, with good
size, Healthy after earlier injury problems in his career,
look for Hackney and UAB’s offense (9.3 yards per pass
attempt) to enjoy a big game in the perfect conditions and
non-intimidating atmosphere of the Superdome.
Tulane is weak across the board, their offense gains only
3.1 yards per rush and only 5.9 yards per pass attempt, with
total yardage of only 261 yards per game against 1-A opponents.
Their defense gives up 34 points per game and has allowed
every 1-A opponent a rusher of over 100 yards. The special
teams have allowed 60-yard punt returns in successive weeks.
With the only win of the season against hapless 1-AA Florida
A&M, Tulane has the distinction of being the only win
this season for two terrible dreadful teams, Mississippi State
and East Carolina. Tulane is going nowhere while UAB has very
legitimate Conference USA title hopes and rolls here.
Thanks for reading us this week. Good luck and be careful.
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