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  Sports & Gaming News: POINTSPREADS, STATS, FREE PICKS. PLUS…..WHY ATHLETES AND FAMOUS WOMEN GO TOGETHER LIKE PEANUT BUTTER AND TURNIPS— 10/15/2004
By Kevin O’Neill

Look, I’m as appalled by Stuart Scott as anyone, but when he says “Najeh Davenport is number two on the depth chart” I laugh every time. How bad is the NBA’s Eastern Conference? In futures betting for the Atlantic Division the Celtics are the favorite, with the Knicks the second choice.

My wife has a theory we call “Athletes Who Marry High Profile Women Hit the Skids Factor” (catchy, huh?). Pete Sampras marries that actress chick? Wimbledon dominator to can’t win a match in no time flat. Nomar Garciaparra hooks up with Mia Hamm? Suddenly he’s giving emotional tirades about the state of women’s soccer to the media a half hour before game time and he turns into a sullen locker room malcontent. For a graphical representation of Tiger’s relationship and the influence it had on his golfing performance check out the chart that Fox Sports Radio’s Steve Czaban offers here: http://www.czabe.com/images/snicky/snicky183-1.jpg .

The BCS rankings, set to be unveiled on Monday, just missed a major shakeup with Louisville’s near-miss at Miami Thursday night. The ‘Ville coach Bobby Petrino made himself a lot of money in the 37-34 loss, as there are likely to be other big program runs at the guy who scored a huge new contract after Auburn’s sleazy run at him last December. Barring a major upset USC and Oklahoma will be 1-2 when the rankings are released. History has shown that could be bad news for the Trojans and Sooners because since the birth of the BCS in 1998, the two teams that topped that years initial rankings have never gone on to meet in the title game. With SC and OU seemingly over their biggest hurdles, that trend could go by the wayside this year. But………….. Oklahoma faces tough Oklahoma State in Stillwater, the only ranked opponent on their schedule the rest of the way. Their trip to College Station to take on resurgent A&M will be no walkover. Assuming they win the division, the Big 12 title game will likely feature the Sooners as a deserving huge favorite. Missouri’s 30-10 win Saturday over lowly Baylor marked the first time in 7 tries this season that a team from the Big 12 North division defeated a team from the South. With Kansas State reeling and Nebraska a shadow of its former self, Missouri seems to be in the drivers seat for a trip to the Big 12 Championship. This for a squad that couldn’t even handle Troy State.

Our Strategic Sports Publishing late telephone service had a nice winner on the aforementioned Louisville Cardinals Thursday night, taking our college football record to a documented 22-5 pointspread mark (82.5%). Our off-season research is really paying dividends. If you’re not interested in a late phone service you might be interested in our newsletter, which is 38-19-2 (66.7%) on the season. Subscribers receive The Maximum Profit Football Weekly via email or fax every Monday night for the next weekend’s games. Learn more about special discounted pricing on our service and publication by calling our free 24-hour hotline at 1-770-618-8700.

After dispensing a brilliantly coached California club, USC is not without challenges, as they host undefeated Arizona State on Saturday and then 2 rival games versus Notre Dame and UCLA to cap the year. If they both run the table, the BCS potentially faces further scrutiny being there are a host of other unbeaten clubs looming on the horizon like Miami, Auburn, Virginia, Purdue, Wisconsin and even Utah. Can’t you just hear the uproar now if 3 or more teams are 11-0 in early December?

We’ve often examined the relationship of pointspread performance to college football fan outrage (call it the Tommy Bowden factor). Ron Zook’s 2-11-1 ATS record as a conference favorite doesn’t help his cause with Florida alumni; it just pushes the temperature on his hot seat to 3-Mile Island level. Speaking of short honeymoons, think the folks in Lincoln are pining for a return to the Frank Solich Era? Despite 58 wins in 6 years, Solich was shown the door and the keys to the Big Red Machine were turned over to Bill Callahan. Callahan’s new West Coast offense has been a disaster and Nebraska is left searching for answers fresh off a 70-10 embarrassment at the hands of Texas Tech – the worst defeat in the Huskers storied 114-year history. Nebraska committed 7 more turnovers and has a whopping 18 in 5 games, as their option personnel struggle in the West Coast offense.

With all due respect to Oklahoma Super Frosh Adrian Peterson and Cal triggerman Aaron Rogers, the top performance of the week may have come from Oregon QB Kellen Clemons. While most fans were riveted on any of the 6 “Showdown Saturday” tilts, Clemons was a one man wrecking crew, torching Washington State in a 41-38 barn burner won by the Ducks. Clemons hit on 36 of 55 passes for 437 yards. He also accounted for all 6 Duck TD's -- 3 passing and 3 running including the game winner with 81 seconds left. What a day!

Let’s take a look at an ugly play on Saturday. Georgia’s surprising loss to Tennessee puts them in rough shape in the SEC’s Eastern Division, as the Vols have now beaten both Florida and Georgia and have the inside track to the SEC Championship game. Georgia, ranked 3rd before the Tennessee loss, have now dropped to 12th and no longer control their own destiny. For all their talent and coaching, the Bulldogs have played only one good game all year, their double revenge annihilation of LSU. Georgia simply hasn’t come out firing and injuries are beginning to mount for the Bulldogs, especially on the offensive line. Starting guards Nick Jones and Dennis Roland both have sprained ankles. Jones will miss this game and Roland is questionable. Centers Russ Tanner and Ryan Schnetzer are getting practice time at guard this week, and the shuffling of the offensive line cannot be good for the Bulldogs. This has been a road-dominated series and the home team is only 2-10 ATS the past 12. This trend makes sense, as Vandy is not a big game for Georgia and leads to a dull atmosphere in Athens while Georgia usually has as many fans in the stands in Nashville as host Vanderbilt. After being sky high for consecutive games against LSU and Tennessee the crowd likely won’t bring their A-game and BCS contenders historically perform poorly spreadwise off their first loss (how about Fresno losing straight up to UTEP?).

Vandy has some issues of their own, namely blowing a 24-point lead at home against Rutgers. A horrible illegal forward pass call hurt Vandy in the closing seconds, taking away a big gainer to the Rutgers 10 when Vandy QB Cutler was clearly behind the line of scrimmage. This experienced team (20 retuning starters) expected to contend for a bowl but are now 1-4 on the season. They may take some motivation from their potential spoilers role here. The points are likely worth taking, as Richt just hasn’t had his teams dominate games in this spread range. But keep in mind that Vandy has not finished strongly. The ‘dores have blown 2nd half leads against Mississippi, Navy, and Rutgers and have been shredded in the 4th quarter of their games by a combined 51-7. Georgia has struggled out of the box in every game but LSU, so a first half bet on Vandy may be a better play than the full game option.

Pardon the cliché, but a big hearty salute goes out to Army this week. It is one thing to snap the nations longest losing streak at 19 games, but quite another to do it as more than a 2 touchdown dog (+ 600 ML). The Cadets continue to give up yards by the bushel full (over 520 a game), but they piled up 554 of their own against shameful Cincinnati. RB Tielor Robinson struck paydirt 5 times. From the police blotter, your weekly entry of players running afoul of the law centers on Chapel Hill this week as UNC has suspended 3 prominent players for, you guessed it.........possession of marijuana. Fresh off an upset win of arch rival NC State, the Heels face a difficult road game this week at 10th ranked Utah minus their top tackler, LB Fred Sparkman (isn't that name just priceless) and 2nd leading receiver Adarius Bowman. They may need a bit of that contraband to numb the pain after facing the feisty Utes.

Speaking of wacky weed, check out this hysterical Ricky Williams travelogue: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/story/240365p-206183c.html.

For something that shatters a lot of despicable lies and myths, check this out:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34167-2004Oct14.html .

It felt like Gus the Kicking Mule tried to boot you through the uprights from 70-yards out if you bet either the Seahawks or the Cardinals last week. Seattle (- 7) hadn't lost at home in 10 straight and came into the week with the top ranked defense. Coasting at 27-10, St Louis ripped off 17 points over the final 5 1/2 minutes to tie and then win it on a 50-yard bomb 3 minutes into OT. Ugh!! Zona (+1) was staring at back-to-back wins and seemingly had San Fran put away at 28-12 into the 4th quarter. But the Cards being the Cards allowed Frisco to slip off the hook with 2 late TD's and a pair of 2 pointers before winning in overtime. Typical Zona. While we weren’t involved in either of the full games, we did suffer some halftime heartbreak as a result of the histrionics in Seattle. By the way, if our Gus the Kicking Mule comment hits a little close to home, maybe you ought to bet less or find a new hobby.

Who says it takes time to groom a young quarterback in today's NFL? Ben Rothliesberger has Pittsburgh in a frenzy and thinking back to the days of The Steel Curtain and Bradshaw. Big Ben has now won his first 3 starts as a rookie thanks to another very strong outing (16/21, 231 yards 1 TD, TD rush) in a 34-23 win over Cleveland. Only 2 other QB's, Phil Simms and former Steeler Mike Kruczek have ever begun their career with more wins than the Miami-OH rook. Thanks to Rothliesberger and a rushing attack ranked in the top 6 after being 31st in 2003, the Steelers are 4-1 and folks around The Burgh are thinking big. FA Duce Staley has 3 straight 100-yard rushing games.

While he may be one of the biggest, most overbearing SOB's to come down the pike in quite a while; you have to give credit where it is due with Tom Coughlin. Widely panned as one the NFL doormats coming into the season, Coughlin has the Giants sitting at 4-1 thanks to his hard-nosed, disciplined approach. Offensively, New York is racking up 364 yards/gm., and has churned out 7 TD's on the ground as part of the 5th best rushing attack in football. They only had 6 rush TD's in all of 2003. Most importantly, Coughlin's discipline has helped keep turnovers to a minimum (4) when NY was next to last in 2003 with 38. The Big Blue is also getting it done on defense, forcing 18 turnovers, which is tops in the league. They've also yet to yield to a single score on the ground. Heading into the bye NY has won 4 straight against the number including 3 outright W's as a dog. You'd have to say Drill Sergeant Coughlin is on the early A-list for coach of the year candidates.

Sunday's Texans/Vikings shootout may have been a showcase of two of the NFL's premier offenses for years to come. The teams combined for over 900 yards with young studs David Carr and Duante Culpepper doing most of the damage through the air (764). Carr and wide-out Andre Johnson should have DB's quaking in their boots for at least the next decade. And while he does have the most dynamic performer in football in Randy Moss as a mate, Culpepper is vying with Peyton Manning for early MVP honors. Pepper has a league high 72.7 completion percentage and has but 1 pick thus far. In just 4 games, he already he has a 4 TD and 5 TD pass performance and has 13 on the year --- 2nd to Manning's 14. Of course the defenses of both teams have a bit of shoring up to do.

We've talked often about the ever-increasing parity around the NFL. Since the salary cap was instituted, it’s given the old saying "any given Sunday" a literal meaning. Just look at the numbers. Through 5 weeks, only 5 of 74 games have been decided by more than 20 points, and 2 of those came just this week. At the same point last year 21 games had final margins of 20+. Conversely, 22 games already this season have been decided by a scant 4 points or less. I know league brass loves parity, but 2004 is taking things to a whole new level.

Finally, you know your season is rotten to the core when your highlight moment involves your special teams ace. Miami's Wes Welker pulled of the rarest of daily doubles in Sunday's 24-10 loss to New England. Subbing for injured kicker Olindo Mare, Welker booted a 3rd quarter 29 yard FG that actually pulled the Dolphins within 2 scores. In addition to his kicking chores, Welker also served as the kickoff and punt return man. No NFL player had performed all of those duties in the same game since way back in 1967, which also happens to be the last time Miami was 0-5. With a total as low as 30, the Dolphins game in Buffalo this week is the lowest non-weather total in memory. But doesn’t the quarterbacks and defenses in this matchup just scream “Defensive Touchdown”? Hold your nose and play the over.

Thanks for taking the time to read S&G News this week. Good luck and be careful. If you’d like to get this newsletter directly via email you can do so by signing up at http://www.consumerbet.com/email.html. Remember to call our free hotline at 770-618-8700, a free 24-hour service with analysis and selections every game day.


Previous Issues of Sports and Gaming News
2004
09/30/04 09/18/04
09/10/04 04/26/04
02/13/04 02/05/04
1/30/04 1/19/04
2003
12/22/03 12/19/03
12/12/03 12/04/03
11/26/03 11/21/03
11/13/03 11/06/03
10/30/03 10/23/03
10/17/03 10/10/03
10/01/03 09/19/03
09/11/03 09/04/03
08/30/03 08/03/03
2/09/03 1/24/03
1/17/03 1/10/03
2002
12/6/02 11/21/02
11/15/02 11/08/02
10/31/02 10/24/02
10/18/02 10/10/02
10/03/02 9/26/02
9/19/02 9/12/02

 
     
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