Numbers matter in football. The ability to properly judge their importance helps separate the winners from the losers in sports betting. We’ve always done a lot of statistical handicapping, so we notice odd performances. BYU rushed for 22, 41, 27 and 25 yards in their first four games, looking to potentially have the worst running game in college football. So what do they do at Colorado State? Pop for 207 yards on the ground and a 31-21 underdog win. If they struggle against UNLV on the ground we’ll downgrade Colorado State (who doesn’t even play this weekend) even further. Colorado State’s strong interior line play is officially a thing of the past. Remember when Sonny Lubick’s name was regularly floated for every top job in the country? That isn’t the case any more, and his Rams are allowing better than 6 yards per rush against 1-A opposition.

A completely out of character performance can tell us a lot about NFL teams as well. How about the Arizona Cardinals averaging 71 yards rushing per game and then laying 211 ground yards on New Orleans one week after the Saints gutsy win in St. Louis? And it is remarkable how your QB suddenly improves when the D has to respect the ground game of their opponent. That performance may speak volumes about a Saints D that takes on the offensively inept Bucs this week. And how ironic that new Tampa Bay starting QB Chris Simms gets his first NFL start the weekend of the Texas/Oklahoma game? Saints QB Aaron Brooks and D-lineman Charles Grant got into a scuffle on the plane back from Phoenix. It will be interesting to see if that galvanizes the Saints or tears them apart.

How did the rest of the football world miss on Ryan Moats? The Louisiana Tech RB shredded a Fresno State defense that had been physically brutalizing opponents. Moats went for 236 yards and 4 TD’s on 34 carries. The only people cheering more loudly than the Louisiana Tech Bulldog fans as they pulled down the goal posts were the BCS big wigs. Fresno State got the tag of “BCS Buster” after a strong 3-0 start. For the 2nd time in 4 years Fresno coach Pat Hill ran off at the mouth at how his team would be worthy of a BCS bowl if they went unbeaten. Both times his team got beat that very week. The BCS bureaucrats knew there were basically a handful of teams in 2004 that could upset the apple cart when it came time to hand out bids for New Years Day. Those 5 teams have now been pared to 3.

Another positive for the BCS crowd was banishing West Virginia from the mix. With the rest of the BCS gritting their teeth over the Big East’s continuing presence in the monopoly, the Mountaineers were a threat to run the table and possibly back-door itself into the title game. Virginia Tech made it all a moot point Saturday by exposing WVU as a pretender. In the 17 years he has manned the sidelines in Blacksburg, Frank Beamer’s Hokie teams have blocked an astounding 104 kicks, including one returned for the lone TD in Saturday’s 19-13 win over # 7 West Virginia. V Tech has now scored 42 TD’s on defense and special teams since the start of the 1999 season, 2nd only to Miami-FL who has 48. Back to BCS issues, with Louisville facing Miami next Thursday, the BCS may only have Utah and Boise State to sweat out the rest of the way. The BCS bureaucrats will have smiles a mile wide when the final non-BCS club falls from the ranks of the unbeaten.

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Georgia’s David Green had 5 of his 10 completions go for TD’s in a 45-16 demolition of LSU, the Tigers worst loss in 8 years. Green tied a school record with his 36th career win as a starter. He needs just 4 more to pass Peyton Manning as the all-time leader in NCAA history. The annual Red River Shootout (Oklahoma vs. Texas, duh) takes center stage this Saturday at the Texas State Fair. OU’s had the opportunity to be pretty vanilla on both offense and defense thus far but Texas surely has a lot to worry about in freshman sensation Adrian Petersen. Despite a past stable of studs, Petersen is the first ever to tote the rock for OU and top 100 yards in each of his first 4 games. He’s on pace for 1,638 yards which would be the 3rd best total for a freshman in NCAA history --- just ahead of a couple of decent backs named Herschel and Dorsett. Seldom confused with Lombardi or The Bear, Texas head man Mack Brown gave those who label him a dull knife plenty of ammo on Saturday. In a case of utter stupidity, Brown was still giving carries to his star Cedric Benson early in the 4th quarter with UT hammering Baylor 44-7. The reason? He wanted Benson to pass Earl Campbell for 2nd spot on Texas’ all-time rushing list. Vaulting past The Tyler Rose is a great feat, but UT fans justifiably would have tarred and feathered Brown if Benson had gotten hurt heading into the OU game.

Since Brodie Croyle’s season ending injury against W. Carolina (31-0 Bama early in the 3rd quarter at the time) Bama has scored just 13 points and lost both games by 17 points. South Carolina stymied the Tide’s passing game allowing just 68 yards all night. The 20-3 victory was the Chickens first ever in Tuscaloosa (1-7). Imagine the excitement in Columbia had the Holtz gang been able to hang onto their 16-0 lead against Georgia. If you want some hot college football selections check out what we’ve been doing in association with the bright gang of handicappers at www.vegas5.com.

Think Wisconsin is giddy with the return of injured star RB Anthony Davis? The Badgers D held its 5th consecutive opponent under 10 points this week, but the offense has been toothless. Enter Davis who ripped through Illinois for 213 yards and 3 scores, his 5th career game over 200. The Badgers will need Davis in top form as they stare at a defensive showdown this week against an angry Ohio State club at the Horseshoe. The total is 34½, an incredibly low college number reminiscent of late 80’s Bama/Auburn affairs. But I wouldn’t want the over, would you?

Getting back to numbers, too bad nobody was in the house Saturday night to see the highest scoring Div-1 game in history. Just over 4,000 “friends and relatives” witnessed San Jose State rally from a 34-7 2nd quarter deficit to outslug Rice 70-63. The game featured nearly 1100 yards of offense (634 by Rice) and a record 19 TD’s. Despite the stunning offensive production the only QB of the five who played in the game to complete better than 50% of his passes was San Jose’s Dale Rogers. Rogers was the third Spartan QB in the game, coming in after a Rice fumble return created that 34-7 Owl lead mentioned earlier. Rogers delivered a feast-or-famine 10-of-17 with three interceptions for 359 yards and 5 TD’s. How about Rice running 100 plays, holding the ball for 42 minutes, running for 570 yards, and losing! Ironically, the Spartans winning score came off of an interception return in the final minutes. De-fense! De-fense!

Need proof that a big-time running game equates to W’s on the college football field? Five of the nations top 6 rushing attacks (Texas, Minnesota, Oklahoma St., Virginia and Cal) reside on teams who are ALL undefeated and in the top 20. Conversely, teams who prefer to “pitch it around” don’t fare nearly as well. Of the top 20 passing teams nationwide, only 3 (Purdue, Boise St. and Arizona St.) are unblemished and in the top 25.

Looking for the feel good story of the first 6 weeks? Then gaze upon the one playing out in Annapolis. Navy has ridden their powerful wishbone attack (268 rush yards per game) to a 5-0 start for the first time in a quarter century. Prior to Coach Paul Johnson’s arrival in 2002, Navy had 2 winning seasons since 1982. Now they are eyeing 2 in a row with a 2nd straight bowl trip as winners of the Commander in Chief trophy. Off of a second consecutive win over Air Force, Johnson has certainly earned his wings.

It’s probably not a stretch to think that there weren’t a lot of happy campers at the NFL office over the weekend. Guarding their image like Ricky Williams protects his stash, Commissioner Tags and the boys were likely gnashing their teeth at the news of a marquee player accepting a deal for prison time. Jamal Lewis is all set to plead down his felony drug and conspiracy charges before the week is out. The good news for Lewis is he will get to do his time (4-6 months with ½ served in a halfway house) after the season. On the flip side, the NFL is ready to pounce and dish out its own from of justice. League rumors have the suspension coming quick, and likely a 2-4 week shutdown. Obviously a huge blow (pun intended) for the Ravens.

Was I the only one waiting for Ray Lewis to mistakenly confess during his “Miked Up” appearance? “Yo! Jamal! You just focus on this. Carry this team on your back!!! Don’t let your court case drag you down!! Carry the team!! That’s what I did when I killed them muthaf-----s in Atlanta!! Wait a second!! I didn’t mean that!! I need my lawyer!! What’s the statute of limitations?”

The Monday Night game was one of those classic examples of the final score not telling the story. Attempting to salvage their season, KC dominated Baltimore in every facet. The Chiefs ran an astounding 77 plays to the Ravens 37, toying with the heralded Raven defense to the tune of 398 yards (to 207 for Baltimore). They also held a 2-1 advantage in time of possession. The game was never that close, and that statistical domination shows what can happen when a talented NFL team is truly desperate.

The early award for best off-season buy has to go to Philadelphia for their signing of Terrell Owens. Philly desperately needed a playmaker to spice up their moribund offense and provide help for Donovan McNabb. The two have meshed like Clyde Frazier and Pearl Monroe with T.O. leading the NFL in TD’s (6), McNabb leading the league in passing (1,168) and the Eagles tops in the NFC with 108 points scored. Heading into the bye Philly has covered all 4 games, winning each by double digits, including a pair on the road.

How soon do the calls for Jon Kitna in Cincinnati get so loud that Marvin Lewis can’t ignore them? Carson Palmer was handed the reigns to an offense that was high octane with Kitna in 2003, but has been stuck in neutral so far this year. The Bengals are 1-3 (0-4 ATS), average a lousy 16 PPG, and Palmer has 7 picks – and counting. Their 1st quarter TD Sunday was the first by the offense in 32 possessions. Oh, yeah. They’ve got a horrific run defense as well. The loss to Pittsburgh also extended an amazing streak of 42 consecutive road defeats to teams with a winning record. The Bungles bye couldn’t come at a better time.

Week 4 had the distinct feel of a turn back the clock day. Emmitt Smith became the 5th player ever over age 35 to rush for 100 yds. in a game. Emmitt must have thought it 1994, not 2004 as he ripped the Saints for 127 in the 34-10 drubbing we referenced earlier. It was his 74th career game over 100, tying him for most all-time with the late, great Walter Peyton. Issac Bruce, 32-years young posted his 4th consecutive 100 yd. receiving day this year in a win over the 49ers. The last time a player that age accomplished that feat was shortly after LBJ stepped in for JFK (1963).

On the topic of golden oldies, has there ever seen a stranger stat line for a regular player than that of the Steelers Jerome Bettis? In 4 games, The Bus has carried 18 times for just 23 yards. But, he’s hit paydirt 5 times including 4 from 1 yard out. With his glory days long gone, Bettis seems to have found his niche as the short yardage plunger. At 3-1 and atop the division, no doubt that Jerome is A-OK with his quirky stats. But I wouldn’t mind betting "yes" on the hamstring pull prop on his “punt into the stands” TD celebration.

Talk about bolting from starting block. How bout the opening quarter mile for 1st year Falcon coach Jim Mora the younger? Mora has the Birds off to their best start in franchise history despite an offense still looking for its sea legs. Atlanta has yet to trail for a single second this season thanks to a stingy defense allowing 12.2 PPG and a + 6 turnover ratio. With VERY winnable home dates with Detroit and San Diego upcoming, the Falcons could be 6-0 and potentially bury the NFC South before the year is even half over.

Books got a heavy dose of dog money in early action this week, both offshore and in the desert. Bob Scucci of The Stardust says action was brisk Sunday night, specifically on the big dogs like Miami +13 ½, Oakland +10, and Detroit +7. Scucci and his crew were great to us in our Stardust Invitational appearance last weekend. Unfortunately our 4-3 card with a best bet winner on UAB was not enough to advance, as probability expert Dr. Mike Orkin got the better of us with his all-NFL card. The key decision was the Bears’ missed two-point conversion, as Mike and I were on opposite sides of that one and it would have given us the win. Thanks to the many readers who came out Friday night. Also, our appreciation to Bob Scucci and Doug Castaneda of the Stardust and the radio team of John Kelly, Seat Williams, and Gene Harvey who do such a great job with the contest on KDWN. Best of luck to deserving winner Mike Orkin the rest of the way in the Invitational.

Thanks for taking the time to read S&G News this week. Good luck and be careful.
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