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  Sports & Gaming News: College Parity Leading to “Any Given Saturday” Reality — 9/18/2004
By Kevin O’Neill

Before we wallow in football, the soon-to-be-deported Texas Ranger reliever Frank Francisco’s chair toss into the crowd in Oakland sparked numerous comparisons of fan-player skirmishes, but there was no mention of possibly the premier fan fight ever. In the late 1970’s or early 80’s, a hockey fight between the Bruins and Rangers saw some Madison Square Garden thugs taking some pokes and grabbing some sticks. The fan involvement resulted in several Bruins, Terry O’Reilly and Mike Milbury among them, scaling the boards and heading into the stands where a Ranger fan was beaten with his own shoe. Obviously there is a lot less room for sympathy when a drunken, loutish New Yorker gets his comeuppance compared to some poor woman bystander getting conked with a chair. Of course, if I’m a professional heckler, I don’t see my wife agreeing to go to a lot of games with me, but that’s just my household.

Virginia’s Marquis Weeks ran a kickoff back for a TD against North Carolina (whose motto is: “hey, we’re probably better than Louisiana-Monroe”) and then unleashed the following doozy of a quote, "That was just instinct. Kind of like running from the cops, I guess you could say." They must be proud of their “student-athletes” in Charlottesville.

The NFL has long prided itself on the concept of parity. Since the advent of free agency, the NFL has become more and more unpredictable, and “on any given Sunday” has become much more than just a cliche. Not just year to year, with teams routinely going from the penthouse to the outhouse and visa versa, but week to week as well. With each passing year, it seems that the collegiate game has fallen right into step with “big brother” with regard to its unpredictability. Sure the 85-limit on scholarships plays a big role, but there are a myriad of reasons that many universities now get to share in the vast talent pool that is evident throughout the country. Not the least of which is the “what’s in for me” attitude of today’s youth that wants to play NOW, and not sit the bench of one of the NCAA heavyweights for a year or two. This spreading of talent from coast to coast is what helps make college football “NFL lite” on the parity scale.

Lets look at just a few examples from the first two weeks of the 2004 season. How in the world do you explain perennial Big 10 doormat Indiana, 2-10 SU in 2003 and 4-13-1 in their last 18 ATS waltzing into Eugene and knocking off # 24 Oregon as 3-touchdown underdog at formerly feared Autzen Stadium? It’s not like Oregon isn’t tough at home. The Ducks have been nearly unbeatable at home in recent years in Pac Ten play and since 2000 have also topped foes such as Wisconsin, Utah, Fresno St., and Michigan on their home turf. The Ducks dominated the line of scrimmage outgaining the Hoosiers by 297 yards but seven (!!!) turnovers helped decide that one. How about Rutgers? The Scarlet Knights kicked off the 2004 campaign with a big upset win against Michigan State. How did they follow that up? By losing by 11 to 1-AA New Hampshire – at home no less. UNH tore up RU with a redshirt freshman QB who wasn’t even listed in their media guide. Ricky Santos has completed 78% of his passes in wins over defending 1-AA champs Delaware and now Rutgers. There are a lot of 1-A coaches asking their recruiting coordinators how they missed Santos.

When it comes to the unexpected there is always Notre Dame. The Irish couldn’t have looked worse in a week 1 loss to BYU where they amassed a whopping 11 yards rushing. One week later, here comes # 8 Michigan strutting into South Bend as a 13-point favorite. What happens? Why of course, the Domers stir up the echoes and lay a 28-20 whipping on the Wolverines, who by the way have now dropped their last 5 road openers SU. Makes sense right? Ty Willingham may have found a gem in true freshman RB Darrius Walker. The kid didn’t sniff the pig in the opener, but ripped through the Big Blue for 115 yards on 31 carries and 2 TD’s. Walker went unrecruited by Georgia coach Marc Richt despite being the Georgia player of the year in 2003, rushing for state record 46 TD’s while leading Buford High to 45 consecutive wins and 3 AA state titles. That gives you a sense as to how deep Georgia is at running back. This Saturday ND faces off with yet another nemesis in Michigan State. MSU has been mediocre thus far the trip to East Lansing will be no cakewalk for the Irish.

Now in it’s fifth year, our weekly newsletter “The Max” enjoys an 11-3-1 record on the selections that are written up on a weekly basis. Dave Fobare’s technical handicapping contributions have been a great addition to the publication, which is emailed/faxed to subscribers every Monday evening for the following week’s games. If you would be well served by another perspective and additional research call 1-770-649-1078 to subscribe.

Tough week for the Bowden family. After the horrible off-field family tragedy they suffered, papa Bobby and Tommy shouldn’t have had to deal with the most unfathomable losses possible. It won’t take much longer for good will that Tommy built up at Clemson at the end of 2003 to be gone and Clemson fans have been hassling the poor long snapper who shares responsibility for the nightmarish final minute with a soft offense that couldn’t get a simple yard in two consecutive plays after QB Whitehurst slid instead of toughing out a first down. Clemson was less than stellar in their opener, barely nipping an average as grits Wake Forest bunch in overtime before giving away the Georgia Tech game. The Tigers D deserves scorn aplenty after allowing Tech to score 21 points in the final 4½ minutes to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Look out for Tech frosh phenom Calvin Johnson who racked up 127 yards on 8 catches including 3 TD’s. The 6-5 Johnson got single coverage all-night including the game winning ally-oop with 11 seconds remaining. That is inexcusable and is the type of loss that could send Clemson’s season careening into the trash heap.

Bowden’s dad paid again for his mediocre field goal kicking. Leading 10-3 with 90 seconds to play, the Noles looked to salt the game away with a 35-yard FG, but those FSU kicking woes resurfaced again versus the Canes and the kick was blocked. Miami promptly drove the field to tie it and quickly won it in OT 16-10 for an unlikely win and cover. That’s now six straight losses SU to the boys from South Beach. Chris Rix, possible the most overrated player in college football, becomes the first QB to ever lose to an opponent five times. As a 5th year senior and 4-year starter, Rix continues to make mistakes you wouldn’t see a sophomore make. Throwing off his back foot, into double and triple coverage. He threw 2 picks and lost 2 fumbles alone against Miami. Hardly the stuff of a Heisman hopeful. The guy just is not that good. On the other hand, how about the start for Purdue trigger man Kyle Orton. Orton has lit up the scoreboard for 9 TD’s in the first 2 weeks including 5 on 329 yards passing in just over a half this past weekend against Ball State.

What a tough week for the top dogs in the Big-12 North this past weekend. Missouri loses to Troy, Nebraska loses in Lincoln for just the 7th time since 1988 to Southern Miss and Kansas State gets ripped by Fresno St., just the 2nd non-conference loss for the Wildcats at home since 1990. It wasn't exactly the Ivy League when Fresno State blew out Kansas State on Saturday. I wonder what the average SAT score was of the players in that game was. Western observers report that Fresno's roster is made up of guys who couldn't get into Pac Ten schools, quite an indictment when you realize that Oregon State is in the Pac Ten.

But let’s give a hand to the on-field performance by Fresno. The Bulldogs may be the most impressive team so far this year with road wins at Washington and Kansas State – raising their win total since 2000 against BCS teams to a nation high nine. KSU coach Snyder said after that game that he’d never seen his team physically dominated the way they were by Fresno, which is quite a statement when you consider the shape that the Wildcats were in when Snyder arrived a decade and a half ago. Kansas State should get healthy as they get right back to the hyphen schools as part of their laughable non-conference schedule. Lou-Lafayette visits Manhattan as more than a 30-point dog. However, when they win SU after a loss, K. State usually wins BIG. The Cats are 28-4 ATS in that spot over the years and since 1999 have followed up losses with wins that average more than 40 pts. The Ragin’ Cajuns were physically dominated at the line of scrimmage by Louisiana Tech last week and have only one returning starter on their defensive front seven. The Wildcats have done a bunch of shuffling of their offensive line’s depth chart this week, but should be able to hammer Lafayette.

Other campus notes: Following their loss to Utah this weekend, Arizona is now 1-17 since 2000 against ranked teams, but showed some backbone and enthusiasm in their first such outing under new coach Stoops. # 21 Wisconsin comes calling Saturday at ‘zona. Ohio State just seems to keep finding ways to get it done in tight games. With a 54-yard FG as time expired to beat Marshall this past weekend, the Buckeyes have now won 13 of the last 14 decided by less than 7 pts. OSU is less than a FG pick at N.C. State this weekend How about the road mastery of Georgia head man Mark Richt. The Dogs have now won 13 of 14 SU on the highway since Richt took over in 2001 after holding off South Carolina this weekend. However, look for UGA to perhaps be looking ahead to their October 2nd matchup with LSU this Saturday when Marshall invades Athens. Under Richt, Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in non-conference home games. The Dogs are nearly a 3 TD favorite against the Herd.

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Your “stat of the week” is from the NFL. Tennessee threw a grand total of 2 passes in the entire 2nd half in their sleep-inducing 17-7 win at Miami. Not sure if that is a product of great pass D by the Fins or the Titans knowing that Miami had basically no prayer of moving the ball themselves. The Dolphins offense should continue to struggle all year as Ricky Williams sits at home engulfed in a cloud of ganja smoke. Even with Sir Smoke-A-Lot last season, Miami still only put up a paltry 19 pts/game. They should struggle to get that high in 2004.

Lets send a big shout out to Steve Mariucci and the Lions. Detroit busted up a 24 game road losing skid this weekend with a 20-16 triumph over the Bears. Despite the crucial loss for the year to wide-out Charles Rogers, Detroit has plenty of weapons offensively including QB Joey Harrington who looks to come into his own in campaign # 3. The Defense is much improved and they have terrific special teams. Matt Millen may have finally figured things out.

The Falcons and Rams square off this Sunday at The Georgia Dome with both teams coming in 1-0, but neither looking very good in the opener. The Birds are a slight favorite, which should raise a red flag. St. Louis has owned Atlanta of late winning 7 in a row SU dating back to 1999 and besting the number in 6 of those 7. Some by very large margins. On the other hand, the Falcons have covered just twice in the last 13 tries at home off of a straight up win and hold a brutal 2-9-2 ATS mark off of a SU win of less than 3 points. Mike Vick is on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week. The folks at SI must have been impressed with Vick’s 2 for 11 3rd down conversion rate last week.

Perhaps no team in the NFL looked worse in week 1 than Baltimore. The Ravens were dominated by Cleveland 20-3 and never really threatened offensively. Listening to portions of the game, I thought the national radio broadcast was rather poorly executed, then the announcers explained that they were in the corner of the end zone. Usually nothing is more annoying than media members complaining about their seats, but you would think a play-by-play team would rate space between the 40’s.

Despite Super Bowl aspirations, Kansas City’s defense was its achilles heel yet again in their 34-24 loss to Denver in the opener. The Chiefs may have changed defensive coordinators but the personnel, and the results, remain the same. The Broncos piled up more than 400 total yards including 202 on the ground. K.C. is 18-3-1 against the number in its last 22 home openers and are 11-3 ATS their last 14 in September following a loss. Of course, the Panthers played pretty well from the line of scrimmage Monday night, but turnovers hurt them, with some of the turnovers seemingly resulting from some Packer defensive schemes that the Panthers were relatively unprepared for. The Panthers lost top WR Steve Smith to a broken leg so their offense could sputter again and play right into the Chiefs hands.

We lost that Monday night game, but the good news is that it was our only loss of the season thus far on our late phone service. We’re 7-1-1 against the spread and all our underdogs have won outright, leading to some juicy money line payouts for our followers. A good place to follow along with how we’re doing is on our free hotline at 1-770-649-1078.

Thanks for taking the time to read this. Good luck and be careful.
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Previous Issues of Sports and Gaming News
09/10/04 04/26/04
02/13/04 02/05/04
1/30/04 1/19/04
12/22/03 12/19/03
12/12/03 12/04/03
11/26/03 11/21/03
11/13/03 11/06/03
10/30/03 10/23/03
10/17/03 10/10/03
10/01/03 09/19/03
09/11/03 09/04/03
08/30/03 08/03/03
2/09/03 1/24/03
1/17/03 1/10/03
12/6/02 11/21/02
11/15/02 11/08/02
10/31/02 10/24/02
10/18/02 10/10/02
10/03/02 9/26/02
9/19/02 9/12/02

 
     
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