Conventional wisdom this week is that the mid majors and dogs in general are getting oodles more respect from the public than they have in the past. Examples cited include 12th seed mid-major Wisconsin-Milwaukee is catching only 4½ or 5 points from 5th seed SEC titan Alabama while 6th seed LSU is laying only a short 2½ into UAB, an 11 seed. Is this evidence of the public becoming more familiar with and more willing to bet teams from smaller conferences?

A study comparing the pointspreads from a few years ago to this year’s suggests the reverse is true. To compare with this season I went back to the 2001 NCAA tournament and did an analysis of Pointspreads by seed, and judging from this narrow study, the favorites in certain seed ranges appear to be getting more play from the average bettor.
#6 vs. #11, #5 vs. #12, and #4 vs. #13 were the three groupings of matchups selected for the study. In these matchups the tournament selection committee has taken a strong stand in saying that one team is substantially more accomplished than the other. Why limit it there? When you get down to #7 vs. #10, the teams are getting a little too close to suggest that one deserves to be favored over the other. At the upper end of the scale, #3 vs. #14 games can involve teams that don’t have pointspreads put on them throughout the year.

In all three of our ranges, the average pointspread is higher in 2005 than it was in 2001. The average #4 seed was favored by 8 over the #13 seed in 2001. This year they are favored by an average of 9.5. In the #5 vs. #12 matchup the average #5 seed was favored by 4.5 in 2001, they are favored by an average of 6 this year. The average #6 seed was favored by 2.75 in 2001 over the #11’s, while #6 seeds are favored by an average of 4.125 this season.

Despite the conventional wisdom circulating among bettors this season, the underdogs are getting less respect than their counterparts of the same seeding were just a few short years ago. The difference is the favorites laying anywhere from 1.375 to 1.5 points per game more on average.

Moving on, there are certain questions about this tournament that, if answered correctly, can make us a few bucks. Let’s look at eight strategies for getting spring started with a slightly fatter wallet.

1. Realize that hot teams are overbet and cold teams are underbet. Betting the teams that won their conference tournament in impressive fashion to get off to a fast start in the NCAA tournament has historically been a good way to see your bankroll dwindle. You’re not the only one who saw those clubs look great all weekend. The “one month a season” bettors saw it too. Not only are these teams likely to be overbet, they’re likely to be pleased as punch to have won their tournament. Conversely, solid teams who played poorly last weekend may prepare as though they have something more to prove at the exact same time that bettors look to beat them.
   
2. Coaching matters. Leadership matters in any organization, and rarely does a team make the Final Four with a coach that wouldn’t be in almost any analysts’ Top 20 of hoops mentors. We’ve got strong opinions, both positive and negative, as to the relative quality of many coaches in the NCAA tourney and it will be reflected in our handicapping. Speaking of handicapping, the Strategic Sports Publishing late telephone service is on a 33-15 (67.3%) recent run. If you’re interested in signing up for our March Madness late telephone service package call my office at 770-649-1078.
   
3. Pick up on actual conference strength ASAP. Conventional wisdom is that the ACC, though top-heavy, is tremendous and the Big East has great depth. The Big Ten (beyond Illinois) and Pac Ten are seen as being weak. If a particular conference performs poorly during the daytime Thursday, that information may prove valuable on Thursday night and Friday, as the conference’s representatives didn’t play as tough a schedule as originally appeared. While the same is true for a conference that overachieves, the negative usage of this factor has more value, as an overrated big conference may have several teams in the tourney while the perception of an underrated conference leads to fewer bids for those leagues.
   
4. Don’t bet the future book. Now that the field is set, the future book is a lousy proposition. Invariably, betting the money line and letting it ride gets you a better return. As an example, Georgia Tech is a five seed and is between 20-1 and 30-1 to win it all. Let’s say you got the best number of 30-1. The Yellow Jackets are a –250 money line favorite over George Washington in round one. If they win and go on to play Louisville, that game would be roughly a pick, so the money line would be roughly –110. If Tech wins there, chances are they would not be much of an underdog to Washington, maybe +120 or so. If they pull off that mild upset let’s imagine they’d be about +150 if Wake Forest made it out of the other bracket in the game to decide the regional title (Tech was +1 at home at home against the Deacons and +9 at Wake Forest, though they are better regarded now). In the Final Four they would be at the very least +200 or so to both Illinois and North Carolina. In the unlikely even the Jackets win it all in that scenario, risking $100 on a money line bet and letting it ride over the six-game span would earn a return of over $13,000, more than triple the $3,000 profit that betting them in the futures would garner. Now granted, we’re assuming no upsets in the other half of the brackets, but it would take some huge upsets to turn the future book into an area of positive expectation compared to letting it ride. Future books are enormous profit centers for the sports books. Ignore them, go with the money line, and let it ride.
   
5. Don’t forget about “March Mildness”: The differing emotional stats of various NIT teams allow for some outstanding opportunities. There are teams so crushed to miss the big dance they have almost no chance to win. The trick is to work hard to read everything possible about these games, look through the “coachspeak”, and put yourself in the shoes of the participants. A developing young team that never really had a shot at the NCAA’s can be a great bet against an experienced major conference team jilted by the selection committee whose emotional mindset is in question. We’ll have extensive NIT coverage as well as NCAA selections on our free hotline at 1-770-618-8700, a 24-hour voice mail broadcast. We’ll also be emailing information on the NCAA and NIT to those on our S&G News distribution list. Opt in at www.consumerbet.com/signup.html for this valuable free information.
   
6. Profit in your office. If you run your office pool place this note on the brackets. “Thanks to last year’s winner (insert name here) for his generous gratuity in recognition of all the hard work we put into this pool, which returns 100% of all entry fees as prize money”. Only a cad of a winner wouldn’t slip you a couple hundred if that notice makes the rounds. It may also guilt last year’s winner into actually giving you the gratuity the stiffed you on last year.
   
7. Bet Smart. If you are not a $500 per game bettor, do not bet $500 per game just because this is the NCAA tournament. If you have a visceral physical reaction as you sweat out a $50 bet, why are you betting at all? I don’t play poker, therefore I don’t sit with the pros in the Bellagio poker room when I’m in Vegas. If you’ve got a little fun money that you won’t miss, by all means take your shot, but too many people overextend come Super Bowl and NCAA tourney time. Don’t be an idiot.
   
8. Take Advantage of Sports Book Bonuses to Put Yourself Ahead. If someone’s going to hand you a few bucks, why not take it. For some information on sports book bonuses check out the article entitled “Bonus Time: All You Need to Know About Signup Incentives at Offshore Sports Books” which can be read at http://www.consumerbet.com/articles/a5.html.

Looking for some team specific information? We’ll be sending out some special email-only reports to those signed up to receive our free informative Sports & Gaming News content via email. You can do so by visiting http://www.consumerbet.com/email.html. Remember we value your privacy and don’t sell or rent your email address, we’ll just use it to send you our Sports & Gaming News updates, so hit that link right now and register to get this valuable information for free.

We’re on a 33-15 (67.3%) run on our basketball late telephones service. Call 770-649-1078 to get on board for our March Madness late phone service package. Remember to call our free hotline at 770-618-8700, a free 24-hour service with analysis and selections every game day. Thanks for reading. Good luck, be careful, and enjoy the madness.