Break Away From The Mob of Losing
Suckers by Following The Rules: Kevin O’Neill’s
Ten Immutable Laws for Sports Betting Success By Kevin O’Neill
Most people in our society accept mediocrity. They did
OK in school and are moderately successful in their careers.
Good enough is good enough. But that kind of attitude
in sports betting kills any chance you have for success.
In sports betting mediocre makes you a loser. Yet some
bettors break out of the crowd of losers and win consistently.
What makes them different?
Successful salespeople do well because they no how
to isolate opportunity and direct a sales process. Students
succeed because they pay attention in class and have
effective study skills. Successful managers stay on
top of their industry, understand organizational behavior,
and know how to motivate employees. Almost any profession
or activity has an established path to success that
can be modified to an individual’s ability and
interests.
Sports betting is no different than any other pursuit.
There are established principles, beliefs, behaviors,
and concepts that are common among people who succeed
in the activity. People who win money consistently betting
on sports share many common traits. The purpose of this
article is to isolate those traits so recreational sports
bettors can model winners in an effort to improve their
game and turn themselves into winners.
Rule 1: Work Hard.
Jesse Tuggle was an undrafted, unheralded free agent
out of Valdosta State who signed with the Atlanta Falcons.
Ryan Leaf was an all-world multi-million dollar quarterback
who inspired San Diego to virtually mortgage their future
to move up in the draft and get him. So why did Tuggle
enjoy a sterling 14-year career while Leaf may be out
of football this fall a mere four years after the Chargers
handed him the keys to their franchise? The most obvious
answer is that Tuggle worked like a fiend to maximize
his talent while Leaf was too busy living the high life
to make the effort to take advantage of his bountiful
natural gifts.
There is nothing wrong with someone just having fun
betting on sports, using football as an excuse to stay
in touch with buddies during the week while seeing them
at the sports bar on the weekend. Many people bet on
sports knowing they’ll probably lose, but enjoying
it nevertheless. Handled responsibly, sports betting
is a pleasant pastime that increases the enjoyment of
watching ball games. Occasional winnings can be a thrill,
while losses that are budgeted for are a manageable
entertainment expense.
Modest recreational losses are fine, but if you’re
intrigued by the challenge of becoming a winner and
would like to enjoy the rewards of winning, there is
work involved. Effort and time are required to learn
the activity, understand the sports you play, and bet
properly. Working to become successful involves taking
at least a few of the following concepts to heart and
committing the time and effort to become a winner.
Rule 2: Wagering skills are
as important as handicapping skills.
Sports betting is not about sports. It is about money.
Sports are simply the vehicle that transfers wealth
from the winners to the losers. There are stock traders
that succeed using technical market analysis despite
their lack of knowledge of the companies they invest
in. Similarly, there are sports bettors who earn a living
by exploiting their wagering skills. They understand
value. They bet overnight lines, take advantage of sports
book specials and bonuses, and bet on obscure sports.
They bet a matchup in a Formula One race involving two
drivers they’ve never heard of because they catch
a sports book that has been slow to move a line, and
the neglected line offers value compared to what everyone
else is doing.
Like arbitrageurs who earn a living on slight differentials
in price in securities and commodities markets, scalpers
and middlers earn a living by betting both sides of
a sporting event. They’ll bet a football game
over 40½ and under 43 with different sports books.
They’ll take advantage of price differentials
in a baseball game and will be happy to make 2% on their
three-hour investment if the underdog wins, while breaking
even if the favorite comes in. They know nothing about
sports; they simply know numbers and value. You have
a job, a family, and responsibilities. You can’t
match them, but you can model them in a limited fashion.
Always refuse to take a bad price when something better
is available. Respect the edge that these guys exert
on a daily basis.
Rule 3: Bet with Multiple Sports
Books Middlers and scalpers earn a living on price
differentials. You can do very well with “book
differentials” in selecting where to bet. Some
sports books offer significant bonuses. Some offer juice
specials on Tuesdays or Fridays. Some offer free half-points
at specific times. Others offer better teaser and parlay
odds than others. Some local books inflate prices or
are slow to move numbers on game days. While you may
not be able to play at 15 or 20 books like a professional
gambler does, you may be able to have the following
in your repertoire…
Book one: An offshore
outfit that offered you a 15% bonus, offers free ½
points on Fridays, and offers many proposition wagers.
They have outstanding teaser odds.
Book two: Another offshore
book that doesn’t offer a bonus but caters to
sharp players. As a result, their lines are fluid, even
on propositions. They offer reduced juice on Fridays
for weekend football.
Book three: This local
bookie often inflates the lines on local teams and favorites
in TV games.
Book four: This neighborhood
old-timer is not technically savvy, gets his lines from
a telephone line service, and only receives two updates
per day. While lines move elsewhere, his stay the same.
Checking lines at these four sports books doesn’t
take up too much of your time, as you can access lines
of offshore outfits on the Internet. These four books
provide you with many options and different prices.
While not truly playing like a professional, you have
given yourself a very good chance to be on the right
side of the line on most of your wagers using bonuses,
vig specials, free half-points, and inflated prices.
Simply using four books with different qualities, you
have many options at your disposal to increase your
chances to win.
Rule 4: Know your strengths,
and focus on them
Are you a wizard with steaks on the grill but couldn’t
bake a cake if your life depended on it? Specialization
is a key to success in many endeavors, including sports
betting. You may be a terrible NFL handicapper but have
a solid opinion on college hoops. Does college football
flummox you but you have a great feel for baseball?
You’re not alone. Very few people can truly have
a strong opinion on more than a couple of sports. Those
who bet every day year round are probably the scalpers,
middlers, and numbers-getters we spoke of earlier in
this piece. Public handicappers who claim to dominate
all sports are perpetuating a lie in an effort to drive
calls to their 800/900 numbers. In the real world, we
all have our specialties. Focus the most on the sports
that you have a valid opinion on, not those that see
you guessing.
Rule 5: Learn the art of handicapping.
Most sports bettors have “they’regonnakillumitis”,
afflicting casual sports bettors who overreact to the
last performance they saw. The Bengals looked awful
last week and the Broncos looked great? Guess who everyone
is going to bet? After all, they’regonnakillum.
Winning bettors who do their own handicapping do not
look at things so simply. They look deeper into games
to determine the true strengths of teams, studying box
scores and personnel. They focus on the personalities
of coaches, studying what coaches do well motivating
their teams in what roles. They study past history and
current strengths. They see how a team historically
does on this surface and in this price range. They study
how a club has done defensively against this style of
offense and how they’ve done offensively against
this style of defense. They study a game from many different
angles, looking for an edge in the line.
As in the study of any pursuit, the shortcut to success
is learning of the success and failures of others. Read
voraciously in an effort to gain exposure to many different
handicapping ideas, theories, techniques, and strategies.
Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas is a fine source
of handicapping literature and their catalogue contains
a wide array of sports handicapping instructional titles.
Rule 6: Become a statistician.
Last year’s Pittsburgh Steelers were dominant
team, finishing the regular season at 13-3, yet Pittsburgh
bettors never had to lay more than 4½ points
to support the Steelers until November 18. What took
the betting public so long to catch on to the Steelers’
dominance? Pittsburgh’s success was based on a
bone-rattling defense and steamrolling running attack.
Casual bettors are attracted to “basketball on
grass” and “the greatest show on turf”.
The proliferation of sports highlight shows has fans
in love with the big play. The long pass in football,
the slam-dunk in basketball, and the home run in baseball
are the focus of our smarmy hair-sprayed sports communicators.
As a result, teams that may be spectacular but unsound
are often overvalued in the line. So how do we find
the unspectacular, but sound undervalued teams to bet
on?
The answer is often in the statistics. Look for football
clubs that defend well and can run the ball. If their
quarterback is efficient but not spectacular, like Kordell
Stewart, even better. Team statistics have it all over
individual statistics and yards per rushing attempt
and yards per passing attempt are excellent ways to
judge the prowess of a college or professional teams.
Undervalued clubs are usually unglamorous clubs. Look
for college teams that with no Heisman trophy candidates
and NFL clubs without any Monday Night Football appearances.
Let everyone else talk about the spectacular playmakers.
Evaluate team statistics to find undervalued clubs under
the public’s radar screen.
Rule 7: Respect the line and
the early line moves
I’ve spent a day in the offices of Las Vegas Sports
Consultants. The folks who are the force behind the
opening numbers for Nevada and many of the world’s
sports books are not stupid, nor are the people at the
books who hang the first offshore overnight numbers
in daily sports. But neither are the people who do battle
with them when the numbers first come out. Whether it
is Sunday night at the Stardust and offshore or overnights
during basketball and baseball, the early moves are
to be respected. The people who move the line early
are not fooling around; they are serious players who
love to take shots at virgin numbers. The linemakers
are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game
and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage
of picking and choosing specific games and when they
focus on specific games when they first come out, their
opinion should be noted with respect.
Rule 8: Be a contrarian against
public line moves
After the pros have their shots at the numbers more
public, or square bettors have an opportunity to get
involved than ever before. Later in the week when the
line moves on big nationally televised “spotlight”
games, don’t treat these line moves with the same
respect that you give to the early moves. The public
loves to bet on what they watch and these moves are
often the result of uninformed public money from “squares”,
not the product of “sharps”. Looking to
fade big public TV moves can be the final reason to
either play a game or stay off of the popular side.
Games out of the public spotlight, involving Tulsa,
Louisiana-Monroe, and the like should be treated with
more respect. The “televisibility” of an
event is often the determining factor in how to treat
the line move. Remember: More public, less respect.
Less public, more respect.
Rule 9: Treat your sports betting
like a business
Unless you’re just fooling around with fun money,
treat your sports betting like a business, or at least
the serious avocation that it is. This means keeping
records, not only for accurate accounting but for the
purposes of analysis. Accurate financial record keeping
is a must. While offshore sports books are generally
accurate in maintaining your balance, they are far from
infallible. Your local guy who makes you quote your
own balance instead of doing it for you? What does he
do when the error is in your favor? Has their ever been
an error in your favor? An error by you can equal a
losing streak, so keep accurate daily records to make
sure you’re not throwing money away. Don’t
assume your online wagering balance is infallible. I’ve
had even some of the most reliable offshore sports books
grade winning plays as losses, which I may have missed
without my record keeping.
Keeping records has the additional benefit of giving
you a means of analysis. Where do you do well and where
do you do poorly? Are your profits all on NFL underdogs
and you’re getting slaughtered on college favorites?
Are you just breaking even because teasers are showing
a net loss? Taking just a couple of minutes in order
to keep accounting records like a small business does
can do nothing but help you in your pursuit of profit.
Rule 10: Have a bankroll
This may be the most important rule. Everyone speaks
of a bankroll, but do you have one? I mean money, separate
from your household funds, that gives you the freedom
to wager without fear of paying your bills or affecting
how much you are putting into your kid’s college
fund. Many winning bettors of my acquaintance have told
me that in their search for success, a big step was
actually having a separate wagering bankroll. A losing
streak is much easier to take when the money is set
aside purely for this speculative venture. Bankroll
should be more than a term you use in describing how
you’re doing this year. Whether in a bank account,
in a safe in your deposit, or on deposit in several
sports books, a bankroll should be a reality.
A final rule, have fun: Unless you’re winning killer money, why
would you bet on sports if you weren’t enjoying
yourself? If you’re someone who sweats out close
games, why subject yourself to that kind of emotional
toll? If you’re spending less time with your kids,
having trouble concentrating on your career, or you’re
losing money betting on sports, why bother? Not everyone
is programmed to succeed betting on sports, nor are
we all wired to enjoy it. If sports betting is detracting
from your life rather than adding to it, remember that
not betting is always an option.
For the rest of you, onward and upward and all the
best to you in your quest for sports wagering success.
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About the author: Kevin
O’Neill is an author, researcher, publisher, and
handicapper, as well as director of content for www.ConsumerBet.com.
Readers can claim a free subscription to Kevin’s
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