WHAT HAPPENED TO THE EUROPEAN INVASION?
HOW THE PREDICTED EUROPEAN DOMINANCE OF THE OFFSHORE SPORTS
BETTING INDUSTRY WAS DERAILED BY POLITICS, PROFIT MARGINS, AND
A CULTURE CLASH.
When offshore sports books began to take hold in the
mid-90’s many observers assumed it was just a matter
of time before the large European sports betting conglomerates
dominated the industry. After all, William Hill, Ladbrokes,
Coral, and their smaller competitors had every advantage.
When the British regulators investigated the proposed
purchase of Coral by Ladbrokes they reported that those
two companies had over 2,700 licensed betting shops in
the British Isles. These government-approved giants enjoyed
solid infrastructure and history, with the name recognition
that came from American tourists seeing their walk-up
shops on every corner in the British Isles. It would take
a Caribbean start-up decades to earn the respect that
their European counterparts enjoyed. Surely the Euros
would use these advantages to squash the upstarts in the
US, wouldn’t they?
What seemed so logical at the time hasn’t worked
out that way. Although Europeans do have some financial
interests in offshore sports books, and continue to
discuss such investments as this is written, the predicted
supremacy of offshore sports betting by the Euros never
appeared. How did the Europeans botch their opportunity
to dominate an exploding industry?
Politics: The books themselves
would tell you that they were exercising caution before
going into an unregulated environment. Most European
companies have held back from dipping a toe in American
waters due to the unsettled legal situation of sports
betting in the United States. At the time the British
companies were concerned with gaining favorable regulation
and taxation status in their own country. Several had
moved offshore to the Isle of Man, taking jobs and tax
revenue away from Great Britain. As they negotiated
for better tax status at home they were not terribly
interested in annoying American government officials
who contend that offshore and online wagering is illegal
for Americans, even if the wager is being processed
where it is legal. Despite the fact that these companies
have nothing to answer to the US government for, they
didn’t wish to rock the boat. There was little
to gain in having the Feds complain to the British government
about the actions of their books. The stakes were far
too high for a Ladbrokes to take the principled stand
that there was nothing separating them from accepting
wagers on American sports if the bets were processed
in a place where it was legal for them to do so. British
officials eventually cut the betting tax to about a
third of what it had been previously, and the major
British books moved back home.
In the interim, some newer British books have began
targeting the American market, but despite the tax situation
being settled, Ladbrokes and William Hill seem to have
very little interest in joining them. Why was this?
Structural Differences:
Despite how socially acceptable sports betting is in
Great Britain, it is very difficult to win there. Spreads
are traditionally much harder to overcome. Even with
reduced taxes, “punters”, as they’re
known in Britain, are often betting into propositions
that are disadvantageous by 15% or more on soccer, rugby,
cricket, and the like. They also are not used to pointspreads,
only odds. For example, on a Word Cup soccer game between
Britain and Brazil, one gets separate odds on Britain
to win, Brazil to win, and a tie after regulation. As
one European bookie once told me, “We have no
punters who beat us regularly. Nobody wins.”
Any organization booking American sports will have
customers that beat them. American bookmakers operate
on a much thinner edge, with a theoretical 4.54% advantage
in football and basketball where the player risks $11
for every $10 they are trying to win. In reality, bookmakers
catering to Americans often have a much thinner edge
than that, due to the moving of pointspreads. For example,
if the line on a football game has been hovering between
6½ and 7, most favorite bets will be at –6½
and most bets on the underdog will be placed at +7.
If the favorite wins by exactly 7 it is likely that
the sports book will suffer substantial losses due to
this imbalance. This reduces the hold on pointspread
wagering from a theoretical 4.54% to a lesser amount,
although sports books actively market parlays, teasers,
and other propositions that can lead them to boost that
rate substantially.
Several years ago William Hill accepted bets from Americans
for a short time. It was during basketball season and
instead of the full college board they only took Top
25 action. Even with this limited wagering menu, their
numbers were slow, and American bettors punished them.
This major British bookmaker was not prepared for the
combination of the thin edge of the 11-10 and the fast
and furious line moves in American sports. The William
Hill folks beat a hasty retreat, shutting off American
players.
Cultural Differences are Highlighted:
Clearly, it is much more difficult to book in the American
style than in the European style. The Europeans have
so far chosen not to take on this challenge. The dominance
of American-backed sports books in the Caribbean, Canada,
and elsewhere is no accident. In general American businesses
are more willing to take on risks and meet a difficult
challenge. Culturally, Europeans are much more likely
to be comfortable in their business, slower to try new
things and less likely to accept risks.
It is no accident that in most industries American
companies are more innovative and creative than their
European counterparts. Almost all the European Union
countries are to some degree or other socialist, and
there are can be significant governmental, social, and
cultural barriers to in business. In licensing, taxes,
and laws covering the workplace environment, European
businesspeople often are discouraged from starting a
business, expanding it, or innovating within their industry.
Laws strictly regulate compensation, holidays, and guarantee
European workers months of vacation each year. I have
European friends who hector me over the amount of time
Americans work and the effort that they put into their
businesses. The European and American mindsets are decidedly
different. Europeans enjoy more time off and a more
active “safety net” of government mandated
basic economic security. Americans have more economic
upside potential and are more likely to live a financially
higher standard of living. Americans have more incentive
to take risks. Europeans are more likely to stay with
something that is familiar and comfortable.
These cultural differences contribute to the lack of
interest that the major British books seem to have in
the US market. The old, established British books would
need to develop a greater knowledge of American sports,
hire line managers experienced in American sports, while
learning to speak to Americans in their sales and marketing,
wagering interface, and customer service. If they successfully
did all that they could build an empire. But this empire
would have to be built by winning at a narrower margin
but with high volume. Some customers could beat them
substantially and there is no guarantee of generating
profits overall. With their European mindset, they have
elected to maintain dominance in their marketplace and
leave the American marketplace to others who are willing
to absorb more risk.
British start-ups unlikely to
take their place: The smaller, start-up British
bookmakers that have targeted the American market have
shown some squeamishness with their risk tolerance,
with unfavorable odds and an itchy trigger finger that
seems more likely to jettison winning bettors. When
the Steelers hosted Baltimore in the AFC playoffs in
January of 2002 one British book stopped accepting money
line wagers on the popular Ravens, stating that they
had “filled the market” on Ravens money
line plays. Any self-respecting American bookmaker would
either accept the fact that they were taking a strong
position on the game or would move the line to attract
action on the other side. Not these Brits, they simply
“filled the market”. Taking a position would
have paid off handsomely for the book when the Steelers
dismantled the Ravens. This risk aversion cost the book
some serious money in this instance and shows their
lack of preparedness for attacking the American market.
The European Role: We’ll
likely continue to see expanded European investment
in the offshore gaming industry, as American financial
institutions continue to step gingerly around the burgeoning
industry. As Europeans are more familiar with legalized
wagering, we’ll continue to see European firms
invest in sports books that target the American market.
Their involvement is unlikely to include giants like
Ladbrokes and William Hill, however. They had their
windows of opportunity to become major players in American
sports betting and elected not to.
Best Sports Books for American
Bettors: Despite the lack of interest in the
American market by major European books, there are many
well-respected sports books that cater to American bettors.
The best have withstood the test of time and emerged
with stellar reputations. To learn more about these
sports books click here.